What Will the Weather Be Like in Beaver Stadium for the College Football Playoff?

The College Football Playoff is coming next December — weather Beaver Stadium is ready or not. (I’m looking at you, Pat Kraft.) Brrrr.

We’re not saying Penn State will be in the field of 12 teams in the CFP when it expands in 2024. But PSU has a good shot at it, despite USC’s entry into the Big Ten next year.

From 2016 through 2022, Penn State was in the CFP’s Top 12 a total of five times in seven years heading into the postseason. (To recap, on CFP Selection Sunday Penn State was: No. 5 in 2016, No. 9 in 2017, No. 12 in 2018, No. 10 in 2019 and No. 11 in 2022.)

And now, after an 11-2 Rose Bowl-winning campaign in 2022 that erased a desultory 11-11 skein in 2020-21, James Franklin’s Nittany Lions are once again on an upward trajectory.

So, PSU in the 2024 CFP is a good possibility. And so is a home playoff game — though with a 12-game playoff Penn State would have had a bye game as conference champion in 2016, and would have been on the road in 2017-19 and ’22.

Athletic director Patrick Kraft — thanks to Penn State’s Board of Trustees — is working as fast as he can to get Penn State’s 64-year stadium ready for December football. Here’s what Kraft told veteran writer David Jones of PennLive.com last December:

“I think the main thing is the cold,” Kraft said. “Or if you were hit with a snowstorm like in Buffalo, that would be a challenge anywhere. It’s not undaunting.

“You simply don’t shut the building down. It will cost money to keep the building running [an extra 3-4 weeks until a first-round CFP game in late December]. Obviously, like every house, you got the pipes you gotta keep running.

“But if we have to host a game [in late December], we will be hosting a game. Is it gonna be cold? Yep. And as I look out at the snow on the ground, parking and various logistics [are affected]. But none of that is going to get in the way of us hosting a playoff game.”

CFP HOME GAMES START IN 2024 

The big playoff news this week: College football teams ranked No. 5 through No. 8 will host first-round games in the playoffs in 2024 and 2025, according to info released last week by the CFP.

Here’s how that shakes out:

2024 SEASON
First Round (on campus)
• Friday, Dec. 20, 2024: One game (evening)
• Saturday, Dec. 21, 2024: Three games (early afternoon, late afternoon and evening)

2025 SEASON
First Round (on campus)
• Friday, Dec. 19, 2025: One game (evening)
• Saturday, Dec. 20, 2025: Three games (early afternoon, late afternoon and evening)

Exact kickoff times have yet to be announced, but figure on an 8 p.m./9 p.m. kick on Friday night, and a Saturday lineup that will likely feature approximate kickoff times of noon, 3:30 p.m. and 7:30 p.m./8 p.m.

THE FORECAST

Which brings us back to Beaver Stadium. A chilly Beaver Stadium. But likely not one 1995-like ankle-deep in snow.

So, what will the weather be like in Happy Valley on December 19, 20 and 21?

My go-to meteorologist in this and all situations is Dr. Jon Nese. He is a meteo prof, Penn State’s associate head of the undergraduate program in meteorology and atmospheric science, a Weather World host, the official faculty mentor to the Penn State women’s gymnastics team and a lifelong Penn State sports savant.

He ran all the historical data so you — and I — don’t have to. Jon is The (Weather) Man, so much so that during the football season, he provides the Nittany Lion brass with regular weather updates.

The good news:

A first-round CFP home game in Beaver Stadium will not likely be a repeat of the Nov. 18, 1995, “Snow Bowl” between Penn State and visiting Michigan. A storm dumped 18 inches on Beaver Stadium just three days before the game, won 27-17 by Penn State. Hundreds of volunteers — including 188 inmates from area correctional institutions — were paid $5 an hour to clear the stadium of snow. 

According to Dr. Nese, the following is a scientifically-based idea of what the weather would likely look like for a first-round CFP game, based on averages computed from data measured at Walker Building on campus on Dec. 19-21 from 1991 to 2020. (Weather on all three dates is very similar.) Walker Building, located 1.6 miles from Beaver Stadium, is six stories high and home to Penn State’s Department of Meteorology and Atmospheric Science.

TEMPERATURE

Average high for each day from Dec. 19-21 is around 37 degrees. Average low is about 25 degrees.

“That time of year, the high typically occurs around 3 to 4 p.m.,” Nese said. “So, for a game that kicks off around 3:30 p.m., you could use the average high of 37 as kickoff temperature. For a noon kick-off, average temperature at kick would be around 32. That’s similar for a kickoff at 7 p.m.

SNOW

The bottom line for Dec. 19-21: There is a 31% to 45% chance of getting measurable precipitation on those days, and about a 10% chance of getting at least 1 inch of snow. About a quarter of the time on those days at least one-tenth of an inch of snow usually falls.

“Measurable means at least 1/100th of an inch of liquid — that’s the smallest amount we can reliably measure,” Nese said. “So days with just a few sprinkles or snowflakes don’t count in those totals when we do ‘measurable,’ because that’s too little precip to be ‘measured.’ ”

WIND

“As for wind, we have to use data from University Park Airport,” Nese said. “Average wind speed at noon is 7- 8 mph. Average at 3 to 4 p.m. is 11-12 mph. Average at 7 p.m. is around 10 mph.”

Nese pointed out that Penn State has had weather instrumentation in Beaver Stadium — on top of the press box — since August 2015, and has had a thermometer at field level since 2019. However, that data is very recent. So, to get a better idea historically of December weather in Happy Valley, the 30-year numbers from Walker Building provide a more reliable foundation.