Penn State Basketball: How the Nittany Lions’ Season Will End Is Anyone’s Guess

By Kevin Wesley

There is little comfort to be found in a 10-point conference loss, but Penn State fans looking for solace after the Nittany Lions’ double-digit loss Sunday at Wisconsin might find some in the predictability of the outcome.

Not much, mind you, but a little.

With their 76-66 loss in Madison, the Lions lost a game they had little reason to believe they’d win: They haven’t won at the Kohl Center since 1995, a run of 14 straight losses on the Badgers’ home court. Wisconsin is a top-10 team that almost never loses at home. By any measure, it’s a game Penn State was supposed to lose.

And where’s the comfort in that? Well, Sunday’s loss came after back-to-back home wins over Northwestern and Minnesota, both of which Penn State had to win to maintain its NCAA tournament hopes, and both of which the Lions were expected to put away. And so they did, hammering the Wildcats, then edging Minnesota despite playing much of that game with two starters in foul trouble.

And those two wins came after a loss at Michigan State, a road game that, despite the Spartans’ struggles this season, Penn State was never likely to win in East Lansing. The result: Four games in a row that went largely according to plan. Penn State winning, and losing, when it was supposed to.

This, in a season that has previously featured three wins over ranked teams (including the Spartans and Badgers), two losses to the same mediocre Michigan team, and down-to-the-wire efforts at Purdue and then-No. 1 Ohio State that showed this Penn State team capable of playing toe-to-toe, on the road, with any team in the country.

Oh, and there was that home loss to Maine, too.

Every college basketball season is loaded with crazy upsets, unlikely blowouts and inexplicable results of every stripe, so Penn State’s 2010-11 campaign isn’t unique. But the past four games have shown a team that might finally be settling into something resembling predictability. Predictably or not, the Nittany Lions find themselves on the ultimate bubble, capable of making the NCAA tournament, settling for the NIT, or missing the postseason altogether.

That’s an awful lot of uncertainty with just three regular-season games to play.

Assuming things stay predictable for the next two weeks, what does that mean for Penn State? Let’s assume the Lions need to finish 2-1. Thursday’s visit to Evanston is certainly winnable, but Northwestern figures to be better at home than the cold-shooting team that lost by 24 at the Bryce Jordan Center last week. A week from Tuesday, the Lions close out their home slate against Ohio State, the once top-ranked squad that has lost two of its past three games. Penn State came within a possession of beating the Buckeyes last month in Columbus; the Lions certainly won’t be intimidated by them at home.

Then, the season finale at Minnesota, against a Golden Gopher squad they might’ve dominated last week if not for seeing two-thirds of their starting front court sit much of the game with foul trouble. Both teams will likely be playing for their postseason lives, and Minnesota will have homecourt advantage. The Gophers have also lost five of their last six.

Good luck predicting this finish, in other words.

What it all means: A 3-0 finish almost certainly sends Penn State to the Big Dance, while 2-1 and at least one win in the Big Ten tournament gives the Lions a shot. Anything less and Penn State essentially has to win the conference tournament to earn an NCAA berth.

We predict it’ll be an interesting couple of weeks.

Earlier coverage

• Penn State Basketball: Lions Are Badgered in 76-66 Loss to Wisconsin (Feb. 20, 2011)

• Penn State Basketball: Battle’s Big Night Powers Nittany Lions to 66-63 Win Over Minnesota (Feb. 17, 2011)

• Penn State Basketball: For Lions’ NCAA Hopes, It’s Now on (to) Wisconsin (Feb. 18, 2011)