Penn State’s 2011 regular season is down to two games – and the “must win” game of the two is not this Saturday against Ohio State.
It’s next weekend, against the Wisconsin Badgers in Madison.
That’s unless on Saturday the Nittany Lions beat the Buckeyes and No. 17 Wisconsin falls at Illinois. Then Penn State is guaranteed a berth in the inaugural Big Ten Championship game.
That contest on Dec. 3 in Indianapolis will pit the winner of the Leaders division – of which Penn State is a member – against the winner of the Legends division, currently headed by Michigan State.
The winner of the conference title game advances to the Rose Bowl on Jan. 2, to play the Pac 12 winner in Pasadena, Calif.
Since the Wisconsin-Illinois game starts at noon, and the Penn State-Ohio State contest starts at 3:30 p.m., Penn State will know exactly where it stands by kickoff in The Horseshoe.
Right now, No. 21 Penn State is 8-2 overall and 5-1 in the Big Ten Conference. No. 17 Wisconsin is 8-2 and 4-2. Unranked Ohio State is 6-4 and 3-3, while division darkhorse Purdue is 5-5 and 3-3.
A LOOK AT THE LEADERS
Here’s an overview of the Leaders race as it pertains to Penn State:
1. If Penn State beats Ohio State and Wisconsin loses against Illinois, Penn State wins the division outright and advances to Indianapolis.
2. If both Penn State and Wisconsin win on Saturday, the winner of next Saturday’s Penn State-Wisconsin wins the division.
3. If Penn State loses to Ohio State and Wisconsin beats Illinois, Penn State must beat Wisconsin next Saturday to win the division.
4. If both Penn State and Wisconsin lose on Saturday, Penn State must beat Wisconsin next Saturday to win the division.
OHIO STATE ON A RUN
The Buckeyes are reeling from a scandal of their own, and interim coach Luke Fickel has coaxed six wins from the Buckeyes. Despite falling 26-23 to Purdue in overtime last week, Ohio State is a 7-point favorite against Penn State.
Ohio State has been playing pretty good football lately. Before falling to the Boilermakers last week, the Buckeyes defeated Illinois, Wisconsin and Indiana in succession.
And even when OSU has lost in the Big Ten this year, the games have been tight – their three conference losses have been by a total of 13 points, an average of 4.3 points per game.
The Buckeyes have a punishing ground game. Two weeks ago against Indiana, they had three runners over 100 yards. They average 200.5 yards rushing per game, led by Dan “Boom” Herron. Suspended for the first six gams of the season, Herron has averaged 120 yards per game and 5.4 yards per carry since returning to the field.
The Buckeye defense yields just 119.3 yards per game, so the Nittany Lions may need to take to the air to beat the Ohio State defense, which surrenders 198 passing yards per game.
THE SHOE DOESN’T FIT
That the game will be in The Horseshoe doesn’t help Penn State one bit. The Nittany Lions have been just 1-9 at Ohio State since joining the Big Ten in 1993. The average loss has been by 20 points, and just once did PSU keep the margin of defeat to single digits.
“The Shoe hasn’t been a great place for us. We’ve only won there, what, in ’78, I believe, and in 2008 when we went out there (and won),” said Penn State interim head coach Tom Bradley.
“It’s been a tough place for us. We haven’t played our best games out there. But you know every year is different. It’s a new team. I don’t worry about the past. I’m only worried about the present right now.
Bradley was a defensive back and special teams star on that 1978 Penn State team which beat Ohio State and its quarterback, Art Schlichter, 19-0, in an early-season game in which Penn State entered No. 5 and Ohio State No. 6.
The 2008 win was one of Penn State’s biggest over the past 15 years. With Joe Paterno in the press box with an ailing hip and quarterback Daryll Clark on the sideline with a concussion, third-ranked Penn State scored 10 points in the final 6:25 for a 13-6 victory over No. 10 Ohio State, before a record Ohio Stadium crowd of 105,711.
Since then, Ohio State has beaten Penn State twice by a combined score of 62-21.
The latest defeat came in 2010, when Penn State jumped out to a 14-3 halftime lead on the strength of two TD passes by Matt McGloin. But the Buckeyes rallied, using two pick-sixes to win 38-14.
The head coaches that day were Jim Tressel and Joe Paterno. At the time, they were the winningest active coaches in major college football—Paterno at 400, Tressel at 237.
TIDES OF CHANGE
Both coaches are active no more. And what has transpired in those 371 days has changed college football forever.
And in their wake they have left a tsunami of scandal, forever changing the landscape of not only their respective teams, but their schools, college football and college sports all together
Bradley, a 1979 PSU grad, and Fickel, a 1997 OSU grad and a Buckeye assistant until Tressel was fired in the offseason, commiserated over the phone on Monday.
“When Luke called yesterday,” Bradley said at a press conference on Tuesday, “he asked how I was doing. I just started — I kind of chuckled. He knew what I meant because he had the same thing.
“And I know Luke. He’s a heck of a good person. He’s a friend of mine. I’ve recruited against Luke. We’ve been on the road together. And he was laughing. He said, ‘At least I got my start in May.’”
Bradley started his new job on Nov. 10. What day will be his last is yet to be seen – although it is a near-certainty that he and the remainder of the Penn State coaching staff will be let go at season’s end.
Saturday’s game will be Bradley’s 449th at Penn State — his 48th as a player, 401st as a Penn State coach and his second as the head coach.
Unless Penn State wins and Wisconsin loses on Saturday, it will be one more week ’til he faces what would be the biggest game of his 33-year PSU coaching career.
