Preview and Score Prediction for Penn State at Ohio State

Coming out of its second bye week of the season, Penn State will face its toughest test yet on the road at Ohio State.

The Nittany Lions will search for their first win over an AP No. 1 team since 1990, when interim head coach Terry Smith — then a wide receiver — scored a touchdown to help Penn State knock off top-ranked Notre Dame.

Penn State defensive coordinator Jim Knowles, whose unit has fallen off a cliff after losing to Oregon 30-24 in September, will face his old team for the first time, which he helped guide to a national championship last season.

Quarterback Ethan Grunkemeyer, who was thrust into the starting role following Drew Allar’s season-ending ankle injury, will return to Ohio Stadium, where he grew up watching games as an Ohio native. Though he never received a scholarship offer, Grunkemeyer made several visits to campus as a recruit.

The odds are stacked heavily against the Nittany Lions, who are reeling from four consecutive losses and will battle for their first Big Ten win of the season at noon on Saturday against undefeated Ohio State in a “Black Out.”

Here’s what to know about the Buckeyes.

Head coach:

Ohio State is led by Ryan Day, the second-highest paid head coach in college football. Day is in his seventh season in the role and has one of the most impressive resumes in the sport.

He’s one of three active head coaches with a national championship, alongside Georgia’s Kirby Smart and Clemson’s Dabo Swinney, as well as claiming two Big Ten championships and four New Year’s Six bowl wins.

Day’s overall record is 77-10, including 50-5 in conference play. His teams have also finished with a top-10 AP ranking each season.

Prior to his promotion to head coach, Day served as the offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach for two seasons. He also has experience with New Hampshire, Boston College, Florida and Temple and in the NFL with the Philadelphia Eagles and San Francisco 49ers, all on the offensive side of the ball.

Coordinators:

The Buckeye offense is directed by Brian Hartline, who’s in his first season with that title after being elevated from the wide receivers coach, a role he had held since 2018.

Hartline, who played wide receiver at Ohio State and later with the Miami Dolphins and Cleveland Browns, entered the coaching realm in 2018 as a quality control assistant.

He is credited with developing Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave, Jackson Smith-Njigba and Marvin Harrison Jr., all recent first-round draft picks.

His name has also been mentioned in Penn State’s head coaching search, though he hasn’t publicly made a statement regarding the opening.

Defensively, the Buckeyes replaced Knowles with Matt Patricia from the NFL, who now leads the best statistical unit in the nation.

His defense is allowing just 5.9 points per game, best in the country and on pace to be the lowest average since Alabama held foes to 5.6 in 1979.

Patricia spent a majority of his career in the NFL ranks, including 16 years as an assistant with the New England Patriots, winning three Super Bowl titles. He also spent three as head coach of the Detroit Lions and one as a defensive assistant with the Philadelphia Eagles.

Rob Keys is in his first season as special teams coordinator after being elevated from a quality control assistant. Before that, he had special teams experience with several FCS schools and spent 11 years as the head coach of Division II Findlay, where he won the Great Midwest Athletic Conference and made the playoffs before the wins were vacated due to NCAA infractions.

Standout players:

It’s difficult to find players on the roster who aren’t among the best at their respective position nationally, with blue-chip recruits and future NFL players across the board.

Quarterback Julian Sayin commands the offense, and he’s posted an elite 80% completion rate that tops the country. He also protects the ball with 19 touchdowns to three interceptions and has an elite arsenal of skill players surrounding him.

Wide receiver Jeremiah Smith is one of few non-quarterbacks earning Heisman buzz this season, with 49 receptions for 602 yards and seven touchdowns. He’s following up on a freshman campaign last season that amassed 1,315 receiving yards, a program record.

“Jeremiah Smith is as good as they come,” Terry Smith said on Monday. “We were hoping he’d go through this sophomore slump, but obviously he’s not. He’s just got everything. He’s big, strong, fast, runs great routes, competes.”

He’s paired with junior Carnell Tate, and together Terry Smith called them the best wide receivers in college football. Tate is on pace for career highs with 34 receptions for 587 yards and six touchdowns this season.

The Buckeyes backfilled Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson, both now in the NFL, with true freshman Bo Jackson and West Virginia transfer CJ Donaldson.

Jackson has 68 touches for 433 yards and two touchdowns, while Donaldson has taken 60 carries for 249 yards and six scores. Against the Nittany Lions the last two seasons, Donaldson totaled 30 carries for 123 yards and two touchdowns.

Defensively, Caleb Downs is widely regarded as the top safety in college football and has been for a couple years. He has 34 tackles and one interception this season, and plays with elite ball skills and instincts.

Linebacker Sonny Styles is a veteran leader for the group who dons the iconic No. 0, resembling the team’s block “O” logo. He was named second-team All-Big Ten last season after switching positions from safety, and this year he’s in contention for All-American honors.

Defensive end Caden Curry leads the team with seven sacks, including at least one in five of seven games this season. Curry has the highest PFF grade on the defense at 89.6, including at 85.3 pass rush grade.

Record:

Ohio State enters unblemished at 7-0, including a 14-7 win over then-No. 1 Texas to open the season.

The Buckeyes haven’t been tested much since then, cruising to wins over Grambling, Ohio, Washington, Minnesota, then-No. 17 Illinois and Wisconsin. The closest margin of victory since the season opener was by 18 points over the Huskies.

Series history:

Ohio State holds a 25-14 advantage in the all-time series, including eight consecutive wins and 12 of the last 13. The Buckeyes’ win in 2010 was vacated by the NCAA after players were found to have received improper benefits.

The teams have met annually since 1993, when Penn State joined the Big Ten, first as a “protected rivalry” and then as division foes in the Leaders division and Big Ten East. However, they aren’t slated to face each other again until 2028.

The series was generally competitive before James Franklin’s tenure, with the Buckeyes holding a 15-13 edge.

There have been many notable moments throughout the 40-game series, including 37 meetings where at least one team was ranked, 25 meetings where both teams were ranked and 12 meetings where both were top-10 foes.

Prediction: Ohio State 27, Penn State 11

The Nittany Lions enter Saturday’s contest as 20.5-point underdogs, the largest since they played at Wisconsin in 2013, a game they won outright.

This game was once viewed as one of the best matchups of the season, but the two squads have been on different trajectories since Week 3. Not only has Penn State severely underperformed, but coaching changes and injuries have decimated the roster and created off-field distractions.

As funny as it would be for the Nittany Lions to finally get over the hump against Ohio State, it’s a long shot given the current state of the program. Penn State may be in for its largest loss in years in The Horseshoe on Saturday.