Penn State’s never ending slog against Top 15 teams continues this weekend as the Nittany Lions host No. 6 Michigan at Beaver Stadium for a noon kick. A win would give Penn State its third of the year over a currently ranked team with a game against No. 7 Michigan State still on the schedule. There has been little room for this team to breath all year and this weekend will be no different. Nevertheless here are five things to keep an eye on as Penn State looks to pull off the upset.
Plug It Up:
Michigan is sixth in the nation in rushing offense which makes Saturday’s contest a battle in the trenches as much as anything else. So far this season the Nittany Lions’ run defense has been a mixed bag – generally speaking Penn State held strong against Ohio State for the first half but gave up a few chunk plays in the second half. Wisconsin, Auburn and Illinois all had success running the ball against Penn State as well – Illinois perhaps the most noticeable given the result. James Franklin and company have already stated they wouldn’t be surprised to see Michigan run some of the same jumbo sets Illinois did the question on Saturday will be if the Nittany Lions can have more success stopping what they’ve already seen once before.
Tempo:
Penn State is at its best when it gets into tempo. It worked well against Iowa prior to Clifford’s injury and worked reasonably well against Ohio State too. Getting Michigan on its heels could go a long way towards finding the momentum Penn State needs to win this game. The Nittany Lions can be an explosive offense at their best, and finding tight ends and Jahan Dotson in rhythm with the offense working at pace could decide the game. The faster Penn State is moving the more things are going the Nittany Lions’ way [Assuming of course the game plan calls for pace the way I think it probably should.]
Don’t Waste Them:
Michigan is ranked 13th in the nation in time of possession which puts a premium on making the most of your offensive drives. This game could be a little reminiscent of Penn State’s 2019 trip to Minnesota when the Gophers bled the clock on a regular basis giving Penn State fewer and fewer chances as the game went a long. The Nittany Lions have done a decent job putting together scoring drives once they find their footing, but if it takes too long to do so they could find themselves trailing and facing a much different challenge on Saturday afternoon.
Red Zone Trends:
Michigan has scored a lot of points in the red zone but the Wolverines are 90th in the nation in the number of red zone trips that end with a touchdown. Penn State’s red zone defense is well documented at this point, the Nittany Lions are third in the nation in touchdown percentage in the red zone giving up a touchdown just 29.4% of the time their opponents reach that area. Michigan on the other hand gives up a touchdown 56.25% of the time. These sorts of stats always include hidden moments – Wisconsin fumbling twice in the red zone against Penn State for example – but there’s no doubt the Nittany Lions have held strong with their backs against the wall. Do that against Michigan and making the Wolverines settle for field goals could go far towards winning. Michigan has kicked 17 field goals in the red zone this year, the second most in the nation. Then again, a lot of field goals means a lot of red zone trips, 45 to be exact.
Keep Them Moving:
It generally goes without saying, but converting on third down is key in big games. Michigan is the third-best team in the Big Ten when it comes to opponent third down percentage while Penn State is sixth in the Big Ten in third down conversions. That number is actually much higher than it was earlier in the year – the Nittany Lions have been increasingly clutch in bigger moments on third down the past two games which has helped, converting 21-of-34 (61%) attempts on third down. Prior to each of the past two games Penn State hadn’t converted more than six third downs in a single game. Against Maryland it converted 10, and Ohio State, 11. Keep those chains moving.
